Politics

Trump leads Biden by double digits in potential 2024 rematch, Iowa poll shows

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in the state by 11 percentage points. In the 2020 election, Trump beat Biden in Iowa by around 8 percentage points.

In the survey, likely voters in the 2024 election were asked, “If a vote for president of the United States were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump for the Republicans and Joe Biden for the Democrats, for whom would you vote?” 51 percent of the respondents chose Donald Trump while 40 percent opted for Joe Biden.

Five percent said they were not sure, and 4 percent indicated that they would not vote. The support for Trump appeared to be driven by support among independents. In the poll, Biden won support among 95 percent of Democrats, which was mildly better than the 91 percent Trump earned among Republicans, but independents favored Trump by 8 points, 45 percent to 37 percent.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, pollster and president of Selzer & Co., said, “Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that’s reflected in these data.” The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co. of 810 Iowa adults, including 658 likely voters, from November 7 to 10. Selzer cautioned that the poll did show an opening for other Republican challengers.

“If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up,” she noted. A poll respondent from Marion County and independent voter Franklin Troy Hommer said, “If I had a choice between Gov. (Ron) DeSantis or Donald Trump, that right there would be a hard decision for me, but if you’re telling me that my two choices are Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I’m picking Donald Trump.”

A majority of the Republican respondents from every demographic demonstrated a greater allegiance to the Republican Party over Donald Trump.

President Biden’s approval ratings have fallen in Iowa, with Iowans disapproving of the job he’s doing as president by roughly a 2-to-1 margin. But not everyone is concerned about President Biden’s performance. Elizabeth McRae, a 22-year-old poll respondent from Cedar Falls said that she believes “four more years of Trump would destroy the country.” She added, “I feel like he is really holding the country steady at a point in time where we’re going to look back and think, ‘How the hell did anybody do that?’” 

ARTICLE: ELIZABETH HERTZBERG

MANAGING EDITOR: CARSON CHOATE

PHOTO CREDITS: INSIDER

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