Politics

In-Depth Analysis on the upcoming Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden

PHOTO CREDITS: KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS

According to National polling, Demmocratic challenger Joe Biden is outpacing President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election, though both national poll and swing state surveys appear to show the race is tightening. 

President Donald Trump has gained on Biden in national polling averages in recent days, as well as in nine of 12 contested states. However, Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 battleground states expected to swing the election. Though Trump has increased his modest lead in Ohio and cut Biden’s leads in Arizona, Florida and Georgia, he also lost ground in Texas and Iowa, according to The Guardian.

According to US Today, while Joe Biden leads ​in every major national poll, that doesn’t guarantee victory. Hillary Clinton had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. ​Because the presidential ​voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which​ go to the state’s victor regardless of the​ margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will ​probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.

Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach the highest levels in decades – if not the highest in the past century – with a surge of new voters potentially producing the most diverse electorate in American history. In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016. Likewise, Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican polling firm, recently forecast that the 2020 contest could produce a massive turnout that is also unprecedentedly diverse. In polls, very high shares of Americans already say they are paying a lot of attention to the 2020 presidential race (The Atlantic).

About 80 million votes are expected to be cast by mail (double the number from 2016), mainly because of concern over spreading and contracting COVID-19. However, an increase in mail-in ballots means it will be harder to tally votes and conduct exit polls in real time on election night. Because of this, there’s a large chance that the winner of the election will not be yielded on election night. Many states are still trying to figure out how they’ll count unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots accurately and efficiently.

Official Polling Numbers:

National Average (RealClearPolitics)

RCP 10/16 – 10/27 50.6 43.5 Biden +7.1

Emerson 10/25 – 10/26 50 45 Biden +5

Rasmussen 10/25 – 10/27 47 48 Trump +1

YouGov 10/25 – 10/27 54 43 Biden +11

IBD/TIPP 10/23 – 10/27 50 45 Biden +5

JTN/RMG 10/23 – 10/24 51 44 Biden +7

CNBC 10/21 – 10/24 51 40 Biden +11

Reuters 10/16 – 10/20 51 42 Biden +9

Quinnipiac 10/16 – 10/19 51 41 Biden +10

Swing State Averages (USA Today)

Arizona: Biden +2.7. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1%. Last week:  Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% (Biden +3.8). Net change: Trump +1.1

Florida: Biden +1.9. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0%. Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0% (Biden +2.7). Net change: Trump +0.8

Georgia: Biden +0.5. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1%. Last week: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6% (Biden +1.3). Net change: Trump +0.8

Iowa: Biden +1.1. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3%. Last week: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%(Biden +0.8). Net change: Biden +0.3

Michigan: Biden +7.8. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7%. Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +7.5). Net change: Biden +0.3

Minnesota: Biden +7.1. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3%. Last week: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2% (Biden +7.8). Net change: Trump +0.7

Nevada: Biden +5.8. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8%. Last week:  Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4% (Biden +5.9). Net change: Trump +0.1

North Carolina: Biden +1.9. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2%. Last week: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9% (Biden +2.9). Net change: Trump +1.0

Ohio: Trump +1.0. USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4%. Last week: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +0.3). Net change: Trump +0.7

Pennsylvania: Biden +5.4. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6%. Last week: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +5.5). Net change: Trump +0.1

Texas: Trump +1.7. USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8%. Last week: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0% (Trump +2.9). Net change: Biden +1.2

Wisconsin: Biden +5.7. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4%. Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.7). Net change: Trump +1.0

POLITICS EDITOR: CARSON CHOATE

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