PHOTO CREDITS: JOHN BAZEMORE/AP NEWS
Joe Biden’s campaign manager reportedly claimed that the national public polling numbers, which show Biden overwhelmingly leading President Donald Trump, are inflated.
“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” Jen O’Malley Dillon reportedly said during a grassroots summit of the campaign on Friday. “Those are inflated national public polling numbers.” The video of the live event appears to have been deleted but her comments were posted on Twitter by New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher. The Biden campaign and Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
This is not the first time Dillon has cautioned about complacency regarding Biden’s numbers. She reportedly said in a three-page memo obtained by Fox News that Trump can still win the November election and the race is “neck and neck” in certain states like Arizona and North Carolina.
“[T]he reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest,” Dillon allegedly wrote in the memo. “[E]ven the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied.” However, the Trump campaign is highly skeptical of the polls. “In 2016, the ABC News/Washington Post Poll was such a complete disaster that these two… news Organizations changed the numbers prior to the Election,” Trump wrote in a Twitter post back on Oct. 11. “Now these haters are trying the same thing, though on a lesser scale, again. Will have a bigger win than even 2016!” (Epoch Times).
Polls released this week by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show Biden ahead of Trump in national polls by 11 percent. Real Clear Politics, which compares several polls and combines the average, has Biden in a lead ahead of Trump by 8.9 percent in national polls. However, national polls are less important than key state polls, and Biden will need to secure a number of swing states to achieve victory. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, winning just 46 percent of voters – but by winning key states in the Electoral College he was able to secure the presidency.
The Biden-Harris ticket is expected to win in several battleground states such as Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, and it is making headway, according to Real Clear Politics polls, in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But the race is tight in several key states. O’Malley reportedly said she thinks the Biden-Harris ticket has secured Arizona, a state that has voted red in every presidential race since 1996. “I know we’re going to win Arizona,” O’Malley reportedly said Friday.
Real Clear Politics has Biden slated to be polling ahead of Trump in Arizona by four points, but Arizona only has 11 electoral votes, with tighter races in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania being critical in securing the presidency – all of which Trump won in 2016. Biden is leading in Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, according to Real Clear Politics polls, by a slim 1.4 percent and just 2.7 percent in North Carolina. Pennsylvania and Michigan have slightly stronger Real Clear Politics polling numbers, with Biden leading by 5.6 percent in the Keystone state and 7.2 percent in Michigan.
POLITICS EDITOR: CARSON CHOATE